Three places to put the same $1,000. Three very different journeys. Which one would you have wanted to live through?
Imagine it’s New Year’s Eve and you have US$1,000 you won't need for years. You can buy a fraction of a Bitcoin, a little gold, or a slice of the American stock market. No extra deposits. Just buy and hold.
Move the calendar to the end of 2025. The surprising part isn't simply which investment made the most money. It's how much your answer changes when you move the starting year.
Choose your year. Watch the winner change.
Pick the year you would have invested at its end. Each option runs to the end of 2025, starting with exactly US$1,000 in each asset.
Start at the end of 2020, and the $1,000 grows to approximately $3,017 in Bitcoin, $2,278 in gold and $1,823 in the S&P 500. Bitcoin leads that particular race. But move the start to the end of 2021, and gold finishes ahead. Start at the end of 2024, and Bitcoin ends below the original $1,000 while gold rises substantially.
These are historical price comparisons, not returns promised by an investment product. Our source prices come from Bitcoin historical closes, gold fixing records and the S&P 500 index.
The three investments don't do the same job
Bitcoin is a digital asset whose price depends heavily on what people will pay for it. Its rallies attract attention; so do its crashes. It doesn't pay a dividend.
Gold is a physical metal with a global market. Buyers may turn to it when they want an asset different from shares, although its price can fall too. Physical bullion introduces storage costs and dealing spreads.
The S&P 500 tracks large US companies rather than one asset. You cannot buy the index itself, but funds seek to follow it. Those companies may pay dividends, which matter for real investors and are not included in our price-only comparison. S&P explains the distinction in its dividend-points FAQ.
Could you have sat through 2022?
Imagine opening your portfolio after one difficult year. From the end of 2021 to the end of 2022, Bitcoin's price dropped about 64%, the S&P 500 price index fell about 19%, and gold was roughly flat, slightly down.
A recovery is comforting only in hindsight. In the moment, a falling balance can change your plans. The SEC's investor guide explains why your time horizon and tolerance for losses matter alongside potential gains.
What this $1,000 experiment leaves out
Everything uses nominal US dollars and a fixed end date of December 2025. We use each asset's last available December price observation for the selected year, so the precise trading times differ. Results exclude taxes, trading fees, inflation, fund expenses, gold storage and dealing spreads. The S&P 500 result also excludes dividends, so it is not a full stock-fund return.
The calculation is straightforward: $1,000 × (ending price ÷ starting price). The chart changes only the starting year.
So which would you choose without the time machine?
It's easy to love an investment after seeing its winning years. Harder is deciding what you could hold when the outcome is unknown. Rather than treating the biggest past number as a prediction, use this comparison to notice the trade-off between growth and uncomfortable losses.
Want to explore Bitcoin on its own, including buying regularly instead of once? Try the CozyCalcs Bitcoin Investment Calculator. For hypothetical steady growth rather than historical market prices, try the compound savings calculator.
Quick questions
Does a bigger ending value mean an investment was safer? No. A final number hides price swings and potential panic sales.
Would a real S&P 500 fund return exactly this amount? No. Dividends, fund fees, tracking differences and taxes can change your result. The chart is an index-price illustration, not an ETF backtest.
Historical educational comparison, not personal investment advice. Past performance does not predict future returns.
Sources
- StatMuse Money — Bitcoin yearly closing price — the year-end Bitcoin closes used for each starting year and the end-2025 value.
- SD Bullion — Gold price history — the last LBMA gold AM fixing of each calendar year, in US dollars per troy ounce.
- FRED — S&P 500 (SP500) — year-end closes of the S&P 500 price index, before dividends.
- S&P Dow Jones Indices — FAQ: S&P 500 dividend points — why the price index and a dividend-inclusive total return are different measures.
- U.S. SEC Investor.gov — Beginners' guide to asset allocation — why time horizon and tolerance for losses matter alongside potential gains.